Housing prices rose by one per cent in a month – so what?

Housing prices rose by one per cent in September from the previous month. According to Statistics Finland's preliminary data, prices of existing housing-company flats rose by 1.0 per cent nationwide from August, and by 1.1 per cent in the Helsinki region. For September the rise is exceptional. In 2015–2025 prices fell from August to September by an average of 0.4 per cent, and a rise as large as now has not been seen once.

In October, by contrast, consumers became more cautious. 10.2 per cent of consumers were planning to buy a home, compared with 12.1 per cent in September, and borrowing intentions and consumer confidence also weakened. So which says more about where prices are heading: the September price rise or the October consumer survey?

One month does not yet make a turnaround

Prices are the slowest indicator in the market, and a single month's movement can reverse as soon as the following month. In 2018 prices rose by 0.8 per cent from August to September, but in October they fell again by the same amount. The September figure is also preliminary, and preliminary figures are revised. For example, the annual change in August prices was revised from −3.3 per cent to −3.6 per cent.

Compared with a year earlier, prices were 2.2 per cent lower in September and 3.2 per cent lower in July–September. Compared with the previous quarter they fell by 0.7 per cent. According to Hypo's chief economist, the year-on-year comparison paints a gloomier picture of the market than developments within this year, because prices have moved fairly moderately since the turn of the year. There are differences between cities. In September prices fell year on year in all the large cities except Oulu, where they rose by 2.0 per cent. Prices fell most in Espoo, by 4.4 per cent, and in Turku, by 3.6 per cent.

Leading indicators turned down

The direction of prices is also shown by leading indicators, whose movement appears in prices only with a lag. In Samla Capital's housing market data the clearest of them is the intention to buy a home, which moves about six months ahead of prices. In May the purchase intention stood at 9.1 per cent, as low as the bottom of the series in 1998. Over the summer it turned upwards and was 12.1 per cent in September, but in October it fell to 10.2 per cent. According to Statistics Finland, plans to buy a home in October were "clearly fewer than on average over the long term".

Willingness to borrow followed the same curve. In the September consumer survey 19 per cent of consumers were planning to take out a loan within a year, which according to Statistics Finland was clearly more than usual. In October the share was 16 per cent, the same as the long-term average, and consumers considered the time even less favourable for borrowing: only 18 per cent thought it was a good time. The consumer confidence balance rose from −12.5 in April to −4.9 in September, but weakened to −9.7 in October. The long-term average is −2.9.

Transactions do not confirm a turnaround

The other leading indicator is the number of transactions, which in our data has moved about three quarters ahead of prices. According to Statistics Finland's preliminary data, 12.8 per cent fewer transactions in existing flats and terraced houses were made through estate agents in September than a year earlier. Month by month, more transactions were made after the summer, but that is the usual seasonal pattern of the autumn: in 2015–2025 the number of transactions made through estate agents rose from July to September every year, by an average of 10 per cent. This year the rise was 4.2 per cent, weaker than usual, and so the gap to a year earlier widened. According to Nordea, 13 per cent fewer housing transactions were made in January–September than a year earlier.

September also brought a positive observation on transactions. According to the estate agency chain Kiinteistömaailma, its September transaction volume was larger than a year earlier for the first time this year. "Not by a large margin, but the trend in early autumn has clearly been upward," the chain's CEO says. At the same time he points out that a small increase on a year earlier is not yet a sign of a turnaround on its own. The figure concerns one estate agency chain, and across the whole market clearly fewer transactions were still made in September than a year earlier.

Interest rates and other background factors

Interest rates are at work in the background. On 10 September the European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, and the deposit rate rose to 2.50 per cent. At its October meeting on 29 October the ECB kept rates unchanged. According to the ECB, the rise in energy prices increases both the risk of faster inflation and the risk of slower growth, and financing conditions have tightened since the previous meeting. The ECB does not pre-commit to any rate path but decides on rates meeting by meeting. The monthly average of the three-month Euribor rose from 2.01 per cent in February to 2.64 per cent in September, but in October the rise levelled off. The most common reference rate for housing loans, the 12-month Euribor, reached 3.38 per cent at the end of September and was 3.23 per cent on 26 October. The average interest rate on new housing loans rose to 3.54 per cent in September. In August it was 3.35 per cent and a year earlier, in August, 2.76 per cent. Hypo's chief economist puts the figure in everyday terms: "For a mortgage holder, a one percentage point rise in the loan rate means, roughly, an increase of a hundred euros in the monthly loan payment on a 200,000 euro loan."

In our data, changes in the short-term interest rate have, since 2006, moved in the opposite direction to the annual change in prices with a lag of about three quarters. The rise in interest rates that began in March will therefore affect prices only during the winter and spring, if the relationship holds this time too. The long-term rate has risen even more clearly. The yield on the Finnish government 10-year bond averaged 3.52 per cent in August, more than in October 2023, when short-term rates were at their peak. When the long-term rate rises, investors usually require a higher return from properties, and that weighs on values even when rents stay unchanged.

Other background factors weigh too. The trend unemployment rate rose in a year from 10.0 per cent to 10.5 per cent, and in September there were 39,000 more unemployed people than a year earlier. In Statistics Finland's series starting in 2010, unemployment had never before this year been this high: the previous highest trend figure was 10.3 per cent at the end of 2025. For comparison, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the euro area was 6.4 per cent in August, according to Eurostat. High unemployment weakens buyers' confidence in their own income. Etla estimates that unemployment will rise to a record high before the turnaround, whereas Nordea estimated on 21 October that the rise in unemployment has peaked. There is still plenty of supply: according to our calculation, the housing stock grew in 2025 by an estimated 7,200 dwellings more than the number of households. Consumer prices in Finland rose by 2.5 per cent year on year in September, and inflation in the euro area accelerated to 3.8 per cent.

On the other hand, the economy is growing. The Bank of Finland, the Ministry of Finance and Etla forecast growth of 1.6–1.7 per cent this year, and according to the Confederation of Finnish Industries EK, confidence in construction is still slightly above its long-term average. According to Kauppalehti, residential builders face a sixth lean year, and in June–August residential building permits covered about 14 per cent fewer dwellings than a year earlier. When less new housing is completed, the current oversupply is absorbed faster.

What happens to prices

The banks' forecasts are close to each other. Nordea forecasts prices to fall by 3 per cent this year and to turn to a 1 per cent rise next year. S-Pankki forecasts a fall of 2.6 per cent and a moderate rise during next year, and Hypo expects prices to turn upwards during 2027. In our August housing market review we estimated that housing prices would fall by about 2.5 per cent this year and stay almost unchanged next year, between a fall of one per cent and a rise of one per cent.

In the review we also explained how to tell that the estimate is becoming outdated: purchase intention and the number of transactions must turn upwards for two consecutive quarters. Purchase intention rose in the third quarter, but fell in October, and the number of transactions is still lower than a year earlier. The condition is not met, and on the basis of the data the effect of the rise in interest rates on prices is still to come. Our view remains unchanged. Its reasoning and the lags of the leading indicators can be read in our housing market review.

The September price rise tells us what happened in the market a month ago. The leading indicators tell us what is coming, and in October they weakened. Interest rates and quiet trading weigh on the market, but subdued construction is reducing the oversupply. The layer of ice on the housing market will not melt overnight. It goes once enough warmth has come for long enough, and it shows first in the current beneath the ice, not on the surface.

Sources

1. European Central Bank, 10 September 2026: Monetary policy decisions
2. S-Pankki, press release, 7 September 2026: Preview of the European Central Bank's interest rate meeting of 10 September 2026 (Euroopan keskuspankin 10.9.2026 korkokokouksen ennakko)
3. Kauppalehti, 27 September 2026: Mortgage reference rate at its peak, Nordea's chief analyst: "The outlook is exceptionally uncertain" (Asuntolainojen viitekorko huipussaan – Nordean pääanalyytikko: "Näkymä poikkeuksellisen epävarma")
4. MTV Uutiset, 5 October 2026: Hopeful news for mortgage holders, a "big jolt" in Euribor (Asuntovelallisille toiveikkaita uutisia – Euriborissa "iso jysäys")
5. Bank of Finland, statistical release, 28 September 2026: Growth in the corporate loan stock accelerated in summer 2026 (new housing loans, August 2026) (Yrityslainakannan kasvuvauhti kiihtyi kesällä 2026)
6. Bank of Finland, statistical release, 28 October 2026: Housing corporations drew down fewer new loans in September 2026 than a year earlier (Asuntoyhteisöt nostivat syyskuussa 2026 vähemmän uusia lainoja kuin vuotta aiemmin)
7. Hypo, 29 September 2026: Hypo's reaction: the housing market is trying to surface, but the interest rate wind is blowing against it (Hypon reaktio: Asuntomarkkina pyrkii pintaan – korkotuuli puhaltaa vastaan)
8. Statistics Finland, 28 October 2026: Prices of existing housing-company flats fell by 2.2% year on year in September 2026 (Vanhojen osakeasuntojen hinnat laskivat 2,2 % vuoden takaisesta syyskuussa 2026)
9. Nordea, 21 October 2026: Nordea's housing market review: stabilising interest rates and economic growth support a turnaround in housing transactions next year (Nordean asuntomarkkinakatsaus: Korkotason vakiintuminen ja talouskasvu tukevat asuntokaupan käännettä ensi vuonna)
10. Statistics Finland, 20 October 2026: Labour force survey 2026, September (Työvoimatutkimus 2026, syyskuu)
11. Etla: Economic Forecast, autumn 2026 (17 September 2026) (Suhdanne Ennuste syksy 2026)
12. Statistics Finland, 14 October 2026: Consumer price index 2026, September (Kuluttajahintaindeksi 2026, syyskuu)
13. Eurostat, 16 October 2026: Euro indicators, euro area inflation September 2026
14. Statistics Finland, 28 September 2026: Consumer confidence 2026, September (Kuluttajien luottamus 2026, syyskuu)
15. Bank of Finland, 15 September 2026: Bank of Finland interim forecast: the Finnish economy's good momentum continues (Suomen Pankin väliennuste: Suomen talouden hyvä vire jatkuu)
16. Ministry of Finance, 21 September 2026: Economic Survey, autumn 2026 (Taloudellinen katsaus, syksy 2026)
17. Confederation of Finnish Industries EK, 27 October 2026: Confidence indicators fell somewhat, but the level is fairly good (Luottamusindikaattorit laskivat jonkin verran – taso kohtalaisen hyvä)
18. Kiinteistömaailma, press release, 5 October 2026: At last a plus sign in housing transactions too (Vihdoin plusmerkkistä asuntokaupassakin)
19. Kauppalehti, 22 October 2026: Residential builders face a sixth lean year, but other construction has its best figures in three years (Asuntorakentajilla kuudes laiha vuosi, mutta muussa rakentamisessa parhaat luvut kolmeen vuoteen)
20. Kauppalehti, 6 October 2026: S-Pankki: the ECB will tighten the interest rate screw further (S-Pankki: EKP:n korkoruuvi kiristyy vielä)
21. Hypo, 22 October 2026: The winners in the housing market do not change easily (Asuntomarkkinoiden voittajat eivät vaihdu helposti)
22. Statistics Finland, 28 October 2026: Prices of existing housing-company flats fell by 3.2% in July–September 2026 (Vanhojen osakeasuntojen hinnat laskivat 3,2 % heinä-syyskuussa 2026)
23. Statistics Finland, 27 October 2026: Consumer confidence continued to sink in October 2026, with unemployment and inflation as concerns (Kuluttajien luottamuksen vajoaminen jatkui lokakuussa 2026 – työttömyys ja inflaatio murheina)
24. Statistics Finland: prices and transaction volumes of housing-company flats (monthly and quarterly statistics, September and Q3 2026; monthly index and transaction volumes by month 2015–2026), consumer survey September and October 2026, building and dwelling production August 2026, building cost index September 2026, households 2025, trend unemployment rate 2010–2026. Eurostat: euro area unemployment rate (une_rt_m), August 2026. Bank of Finland: Euribor 3 and 12 months. European Central Bank: Finnish long-term interest rate (10 years), August 2026. Samla Capital database, retrieved 28 October 2026.
25. Samla Capital: Housing Market Review Q2/2026, 17 August 2026 (lags of the leading indicators, the turnaround condition, price view 2026–2028).
26. European Central Bank, 29 October 2026: Monetary policy decisions
27. Bank of Finland, press release, 29 October 2026: ECB monetary policy decisions (EKP:n rahapoliittisia päätöksiä)