A weekly expert view of the property market: analysis of developments in the sector in Finland and neighbouring markets.
Kriittinen piste (The Critical Point) was published on 24 September by Otava. The book tells of the road to Olympic gold, entrepreneurship and real estate investment, the story of The Hotel Maria, and the founding and present day of Samla Capital.
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Data centre construction is growing at an exceptional pace in Finland, and YIT doubled its growth target within a week. At the same time, rising interest rates are slowing housing construction, and small and medium-sized construction companies are already reporting labour shortages. When the same limited workforce is shared between two developments moving in opposite directions, price alone no longer decides who wins the contracts.
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The maximum share of the housing company loan for new-build apartments rose from 60 per cent to 70 per cent at the start of July. The debt does not disappear, but it is distributed differently: a larger share of the financing is arranged at housing company level before the individual buyer even begins loan negotiations.
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OP Financial Group CEO Timo Ritakallio predicts a ketchup-bottle effect in the housing market: four years of pent-up demand released all at once, perhaps within months. We tested the claim against our own housing market data in both directions. There is pressure in the bottle, but the cap is not off yet.
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The rent statistics report one figure, but the market has two prices. The gap opened in 2023 and has not narrowed since. For an investor, only one of them matters.
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Samla Capital, a manager of alternative investment funds, has been quietly building a new foundation. The renewed website is now open. Behind it sits Samla Market Pulse, built on data the company has gathered for its own investment activity. That same data now feeds quarterly market reviews of the property market and weekly shorter news on what is happening in the market right now.
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A turning point is not identified by opinion. We went through the indicators that ought to anticipate housing prices. We looked at which of them actually have a connection. At the end we give our view for the coming year.
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Eight countries, the same statistics and ten years side by side. Finland is the only one where the real price of housing has fallen. For an investor that means something different from how it first appears.
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In June 2026 the price data on individual housing transactions disappeared from public websites, and the National Land Survey is now proposing a state-maintained register in its place. The same gap recurs in the repair backlog of housing companies and in how banks interpret condition survey reports. Information on the state of the market is becoming obscured just when a turn in prices may be close.
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