A ketchup bottle shaken for four years: what our own data says about Ritakallio's forecast

Hämeenlinna, Thursday 3 September. At a Finance Finland seminar, the CEO of the country's largest financial group, Timo Ritakallio, says something about the housing market that has not been said since spring 2022: the turn is close. "Any month now", he specifies, on the condition that no new bad news arrives.

Ritakallio calls the expected turn a ketchup-bottle effect. The term describes a situation in which, after a long silence, things break loose suddenly and with great force. The bottle is shaken, nothing comes out, it is shaken again, and then everything comes at once. His mechanism is an everyday one: many have postponed buying a home because prices have fallen and because, year after year, buyers have been told to wait. "And then, the first time you notice that the flat you were about to buy no longer gets cheaper, and you come second at a couple of viewings for the flat you wanted, that is when it starts moving more strongly." His example is the market for new cars, where registrations rose about ten per cent year on year in July and 25 to 26 per cent in August.

The image is a good one, which is why it deserves to be taken seriously. The ketchup bottle is a useful metaphor precisely because it contains two separate questions. Is there pressure in the bottle? And is the cap about to come off? We went through both with our own housing market data.

There is pressure in the bottle

Pent-up demand means buyers who exist but do not buy. They do exist. Around 28,700 transactions in existing housing-company flats were recorded across Finland in January to June 2026, 13 per cent fewer than a year earlier, and 2025 was already a quiet year. In the Helsinki region, trading is at levels that Talouselämä this week compared with the recession years. At the same time, the people who ought to be buying have grown wealthier. Earnings rose 3.5 per cent in the second quarter while housing prices fell 3.9 per cent, so for a wage earner a home is about seven per cent cheaper than a year ago. Households' housing loan stock has shrunk, not grown. The economy grew 1.6 per cent in the second quarter.

Sentiment has turned before trading, as it usually does. The consumer confidence indicator stood at −12.5 in April and −3.0 in August. The share of consumers planning to buy a home within the next twelve months fell to 9.1 per cent in May, the lowest reading in the series since 1998, and has since risen to 11.1 per cent in August. Purchase intention is the clearest leading indicator of prices in our data: it moves about six months ahead of prices.

And then there is the reason the bottle may burst rather than drip. Supply does not flex. Around 15,500 dwellings were started in residential buildings over the past twelve months, less than half the pace of early 2023. Completions over the same period still total 20,000, because earlier years' starts are being finished now, but after that the pipeline is thin and, by our estimate, bottoms out in 2027–2028 well below the needs of the growth centres. If buyers return to the market at the same time as completions fall, the price reaction is sharper than with steadily growing supply. This is the physics of the ketchup bottle: shaken contents and a narrow neck.

Why the cap may stay on

So is the turn only months away? Here the data is more cautious than the CEO, and there are four reasons.

The first is the price of money. The twelve-month Euribor stood at 3.11 per cent on Friday. In February it was 2.20, and a year ago 2.18. The rate is now at the level last seen in autumn 2024, and the direction is up, whereas then it was down. The average rate on new housing loans rose to 3.28 per cent in July, and six per cent less in new housing loans was drawn down in January to July than a year earlier. Ritakallio's mechanism requires the buyer to notice that prices have stopped falling. It does not require the monthly loan payment to rise at the same time.

The second is that a quiet market is in no hurry. Around 53,500 homes were on sale at the end of 2025, and the median selling time for an existing flat or terraced house was 103 days. Nobody comes second at a viewing when three similar homes are on offer. Pent-up demand is released only when the buyer experiences scarcity, and scarcity arises only when the stock has been sold down.

The third is renting. Rents rose 0.6 per cent nationwide in the second quarter and market-financed rents 0.1 per cent; in the Helsinki region market-financed rents fell 0.3 per cent, and in Vantaa 1.2. When renting gets cheaper relative to buying, waiting costs nothing. The same oversupply that weighs on rents has already brought down two rental housing companies: in early September the Etelä-Pohjanmaa District Court declared Fisyr Vuokra-asunnot Oy and Armas palvelukiinteistöt Oy bankrupt, with combined debts of 23 million euros. This is the scenario in which the cap stays on for a long time: empty homes produce nothing, and the weakest owners tire before demand returns.

The fourth is the overall picture of bankruptcies. Around 4,000 bankruptcy petitions were filed across all sectors over the past twelve months, a good five per cent more than a year earlier, and 788 in construction. In our data, bankruptcies lead unemployment by three to six quarters, and someone who has lost their job does not buy a home at any interest rate. In construction, the monthly figure has admittedly fallen from 77 in the spring to 50 in July, so the worst may be over. Over is not the same as good.

Where the release will show

Two indicators decide. Purchase intention tells of intent, transaction volume of what actually happened, and both move about three quarters ahead of prices. When both rise for two consecutive quarters, the cap is off. Right now purchase intention has risen from its trough but remains below its long-term average of 12.7 per cent, and transaction volume has not turned at all. The second condition is missing.

For an investor timing is essential. Whoever buys now buys in a buyer's market, as property investor Suvi Kinnunen put it this week. She does not know the month the cap comes off, and neither does anyone else. But she knows which side of the table to sit on when it does. The one shaking the ketchup bottle never gets a controlled portion. It goes to the one whose plate is already in place.

Sources

• Iltalehti, 3 September 2026: CEO: a huge release is beginning in a large part of the Finnish economy (Timo Ritakallio's remarks at the Finance Finland seminar in Hämeenlinna, the ketchup-bottle effect, the new-car example, the state of households).
• Kauppalehti, 3 September 2026: Timo Ritakallio predicts a ketchup-bottle pop in the housing market, and Talouselämä, 6 September 2026: The housing market is simmering and will pop like a ketchup bottle.
• Talouselämä, 3 September 2026: Grim assessment: housing sales close to recession-year figures (Helsinki region housing sales).
• Yle, 4 September 2026: Two property companies, Fisyr Vuokra-asunnot and Armas palvelukiinteistöt, declared bankrupt, debts of 23 million euros.
• Helsingin Sanomat, 3 September 2026: How much more a housing loan may cost next winter (Euribor level in autumn 2024).
• Kauppalehti, 5 September 2026: Finland's best-known property investor: it is now a buyer's market (Suvi Kinnunen).
• Statistics Finland: prices and transaction volumes of existing housing-company flats (monthly and quarterly statistics, July and Q2 2026), rents of dwellings Q2 2026, building and dwelling production June 2026, bankruptcies July 2026, consumer confidence August 2026, index of wage and salary earnings Q2 2026, quarterly national accounts Q2 2026, sales listings December 2025. Samla Capital database, retrieved 7 September 2026.
• Bank of Finland: 12-month Euribor 4 September 2026, new housing loans and housing loan stock July 2026.
• Samla Capital: Housing Market Review 17 August 2026 (the leading properties of purchase intention and transaction volume, the link between bankruptcies and unemployment, the production pipeline 2027–2028).